After the New Year’s Day, the domestic MIBK market continued to rise. As of January 9, the market negotiation had increased to 17500-17800 yuan/ton, and it was heard that the market bulk orders had been traded to 18600 yuan/ton. The national average price was 14766 yuan/ton on January 2, and it rose to 17533 yuan/ton on January 9, with a broad increase of 18.7%. The price of MIBK was strong and pulled up. The price of raw material acetone is weak and the overall impact on the cost side is limited. The parking of large plants in the site, the overall supply of goods is tight, which is good for supporting the mentality of the operators, and the atmosphere of boosting is strong. The focus of market negotiation is strong and high. The downstream is mainly to maintain small orders and just need to purchase, while large orders are difficult to release, the overall delivery and investment atmosphere is flat, and the real order negotiation is the main.

Supply side: At present, the operating rate of the MIBK industry is 40%, and the continuous rise of the MIBK market is mainly supported by the supply side tension. After the shutdown of the large factory, the market expects that the amount of cash circulation resources will be tightened, and the commodity holders have a positive attitude, high expectations for the future, and the driving mood will not be reduced. The quotation is high, and the small bulk goods in the market reach 18600 yuan/ton. It is expected that the supply side tension will continue in January, and MIBK will have no intention to make profits.

Normal operation of Wanhua Chemical 15000 t/a MIBK unit

Zhenjiang Li Changrong’s 15000 t/a MIBK device was shut down for maintenance on December 25
Normal operation of Jilin Petrochemical 15000 t/a MIBK unit
Ningbo Zhenyang Chemical 15000 t/a MIBK plant runs smoothly
Dongying Yimeide Chemical 15000 t/a MIBK plant has been shut down for maintenance since November 2
Demand side: There are few large orders in the downstream, mainly small orders just need to be purchased, and the participation of middlemen has also increased. The downstream factories have orders just need to purchase raw materials near the end of the year, coupled with the increase of logistics costs, the arrival prices in various places are high, and the short-term supply is expected to be tight, so it is difficult to have the intention of concessions. It is expected that many small orders need to be followed up in the downstream before the festival.

Cost: raw acetone continued to decline sharply. Although acetone in East China rose slightly by 50 yuan/ton yesterday and the East China market discussed 4650 yuan/ton, it had little impact on the downstream. The cost of MIBK plant is low. Although the downstream profit margin of MIBK is good and the MIBK market continues to rise, the industry operating rate is low and the demand for raw acetone is not large. At present, look at acetone and downstream. MIBK has low correlation and low cost. MIBK is profitable.
The MIBK market price is strong, the market supply tension is difficult to ease, and the operators have a good mentality. The focus of market negotiation is high and firm. Downstream only needs to purchase small orders, and actual negotiation is limited. It is estimated that the mainstream price of MIBK market will be between 16500-18500 yuan per ton before the Spring Festival.

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